My goodness, it’s the end of the year once again, and time for some reflection on the state of 3D printing.
3D Print Industry Trajectory
If there was one factor covering the entire year in 3D printing, it was the increasingly negative mood.
I recall a time ten years ago when things looked utterly different. Back then, companies were sprouting up everywhere, trying everything and sometimes succeeding. Everything was growing. There was considerable interest from the mass media, although few reporters had any clue what was really going on.
There was even a point when major company execs were suggesting that there should be a “3D printer in every room in your house!” This hoopla translated into very large investments from venture capital folks seeking huge returns. For a while, it worked, as stock prices rose.
And then it all collapsed, at least in the stock markets. It became clear to all that there would never be a 3D printer in every room, and that even using the technology for manufacturing would be challenging. Investment dried up, since investors no longer saw the huge future that was previously imagined.
But many of the big players in the industry were still flush with cash from those prior investments and were able to proceed forward.
I began to see a decline in the number of key innovations from big companies after the pandemic. At first, I thought that might have been due to the shutting down of research and development activities and that things would resume after a delay. But that wasn’t the case last year, and 2024 was more of the same.
Instead of innovating, many of the larger players in the industry were scrambling in 2024 because their cash from those previous investments began to run out.
We saw fewer new products, fewer new materials, absences from trade shows, layoffs, even complete withdrawals from marketing and actual bankruptcies. We saw companies perform financial maneuvers to rustle up some cash, like issuing new debt notes or attempting mergers to save on administrative costs in combined operations.
That may sound quite gloomy — and it is — but to me it is only the first thing you might notice in the industry. If you look deeper, you will find many smaller companies, those that didn’t take big investments, often doing pretty well. They have unique technologies that fit into certain niches and are well-regarded by their customers.
This is always the way when a new technology is introduced, and Gartner even formalized the process in their “Hype Cycle”. Essentially, the cycle begins with small numbers of early adopters, and then is followed by mass excitement of what the technology might do. At that point, we see speculators trying to extract the maximum amount of money out of the system, regardless of the outcome. Interest then collapses in the cycle, followed finally by surviving companies that have actually figured out how to really use the technology.
That’s about where we are now, in the late stages of the collapse and just as the survivors begin to thrive.
Asian 3D Printing
2024 was the year when Asian companies really took hold in the industry, the moment when Western companies realized they had very serious competition.
I’ve seen this coming for a while. At Fabbaloo, we frequently perform hands-on tests of 3D printers and related equipment. For the past several years, we’ve consistently seen incremental improvements in machines from Asia, and today they are usually of very good quality — and available at rock-bottom prices.
Years ago, a US$500 3D printer would have been a laughable self-built device that barely worked, but now you can obtain a very reliable, mostly automated device that can even print in multiple materials. That’s mostly due to the competition triggered from Asia.
At recent Western trade shows, I’ve seen a huge increase in the number of Asian vendors. In past years, you wouldn’t see many of them, as they tended to focus regionally. Nowadays, many of them are striking out globally, and they have the size and resources to do so. Western companies may have a hard time competing with them, not only due to the obvious factors, but also because Western investors don’t want to fund 3D print companies anymore. This could be a perfect storm against the West in 3D printing.
Asian 3D printer companies are here to stay and could very well dominate the market in a few years.
Print Quality
I recall the first 3D print I ever attempted with my own desktop 3D printer, one I had built by hand from a large pile of parts. The result was a misshapen blob, mostly due to incorrect print parameters, which were undefined at the time.
Nevertheless, I was totally impressed that I could print anything. For a while, lots of people felt that way about 3D printing.
At this point, it’s very different: print quality standards have been raised incrementally for quite a while, and now even slight defects in prints are seen as failures. Print parameters must be precise, materials must be near-perfect, and environmental conditions ideal. Many 3D printer operators have filament drying systems, for example.
In the past, desktop 3D printer operators didn’t worry too much about those things, but they are essential today. The standards of print quality have definitely changed — for the better.
The standards are now so high that it is unlikely we’ll ever see a new 3D printer company emerge from a garage as we did many times in the past. The only way that could happen now is if someone invents a completely new printing technology.
3D Print Accessibility
Years ago, the interest in 3D printing was sky-high, but very few people had a 3D printer. That drove the need for 3D print services, such as Shapeways, that filled the need for printing for individuals without equipment.
In 2024, we find that the equation is turned upside down. There are staggering numbers of desktop 3D printers deployed, and it’s increasingly common for someone to say they have their own printer.
Maybe it’s just me, but in 2024, I had multiple serious requests from friends that wanted to get into 3D printing. They sought advice, and many bought or obtained a 3D printer.
They could do so for two reasons:
The machines are now basically reliable and require far less technical skill than earlier machines.
The machines are available at very low price points.
I believe the integration of cloud systems with 3D model libraries has made the use of these systems much more accessible to the common person. It’s pretty easy to set up and use these systems, so we’re going to see a lot more machines sold in coming years as the public gets more familiar with them.
