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Entries in prediction (74)

Sunday
14Mar2010

The Battle of Big Thinking

We listened to an interesting presentation from John Wilshire on the topic of "Big". He means the notion of mass production, mass consumption and the resulting mass media, where the goal is simply to have you "buy more" in a "big way". It's true. We've all been conditioned to think this way as that was one of the fundamental principles of 20th century industry. 
 
Things change in the 21st century, where technology, networking and software permits us to be anywhere, build anything and have relationships with anyone. Well, potentially, anyway. The result is that we do what we want and then cluster in affinity groups. 
 
These groups are increasingly less interested in "buying more" in a "big way" as they interests focus elsewhere. Wilshire proposes "Social Production", where manufacturing occurs on a lower, but more distributed scale. He describes at length the social constructs that permit the identification and development of solutions. But then the next step occurs: sharing the results. 
 
He describes how 3D printing can be the end point for this process, where the ideas become real. The conclusion: Our Future = Social Media + Social Production.
 

 

Via Slideshare

 

Monday
08Mar2010

3D Printing is Not China on Your Desktop

A 2008 quote attributed to Chris DiBona, Open Source Programs Manager at Google says: "Think of RepRap as a China on your desktop."

We strongly resonate with that image. Instead of receiving goods from China, which evidently manufactures all things these days, you can drop a 3D printer on your desk and manufacture things yourself. We Want To Do That!

But there are some issues:

  • The build quality of today's 3D printers (at least the semi-affordable ones) is not quite equivalent to mainstream Chinese manufacturers
  • The objects made in China have been professionally designed, tested and safety certified. Are yours? If not, where do you get the right 3D model to print?
  • The build chamber of many 3D printers is smaller than the object you want to print. Therefore you must print parts and then assemble them. In some cases, this could be difficult


But let's assume these and other issues are eventually solved. You have a quality printer, a great design and you can rapidly print out your item.

It's still not China.

That's because the unit price of printing items yourself will never approach the low cost levels of Chinese manufacturers. Your printer will be idle for much of the day, while Chinese equipment efficiently spins 24 hours per day, tended by low-cost staff, producing items at extremely low cost. Home printing can never match China on cost.

And that's the tradeoff we're all faced with: Design choice but expensive, or Inexpensive with limited choice. Choose one.

Image Credit: Joi Via Wikipedia under CC Attribution 2.0 Generic

Monday
22Feb2010

Seth Godin's Vision

We read Seth Godin's posts often, and recently completed his latest book, Linchpin: Are You Indispensable?.

In the book Godin proposes that the industrial model that we've lived with for some 250 years is drawing to a close. With painful accuracy, he describes the fruitless struggles and frustrations many people face at work in the factories of today - even if they are information worker factories. He believes it must and is going to change:

Our economy has reached a logical conclusion. The race to make average stuff for average people in huge quantities is almost over. We're hitting an asymptote, a natural ceiling for how cheaply and how fast we can deliver uninspired work.


But what does the new economy look like? Godin sums it up thusly:

Shipping an idea went from taking a month by boat to a few days by plane to overnight by Federal Express to a few minutes by fax to a moment by email to instantaneously by Twitter. Now what? Will it arrive yesterday?

So, what's left to make - to give - art. What's left is the generosity and humanity worth paying for.


In other words, the days of commoditization are over and people will increasingly seek uniqueness, because it's not just about the money or efficiency. 21st century technology will make it possible, including one of the important technologies: 3D printing. Make exactly what you want, anytime.

Via Seth Godin's Linchpin: Are You Indispensable?

Wednesday
13Jan2010

3D Jobs of the Future

The Guardian's Ian Wylie posts an interesting vision of the future, where he extrapolates technologies emerging today into full-on industries and associated job roles. They describe a great many truly interesting jobs of the year 2020, and one of them involves 3D printing: Construction Worker. Actually, they believe that Construction Workers might be at risk, because:
 
… "3D printing" techniques, in which solid objects can be constructed automatically from computer models, will enable buildings to be erected in a matter of hours.
 
That could be true, but we suspect only certain types of construction workers need worry. From what we've seen, the 3D House Printers of the future will be gigantic inkjet-style concrete pumpers that would lay out the basic walls and floors of your 21st century fabhome. There will be plenty of jobs for painters, decorators, electricians and many other skill areas. 
 

 

Wednesday
06Jan2010

The Third Wave of Industrialization

Alf Rehn is is Chair of Management and Organization (Åbo Akademi University) and formerly Professor of Innovation and Entrepreneurship (KTH, Stockholm), and in a recent column he postulates the future for Finland, and by implication the rest of the world. 
 
Rehn writes of the growing troubles in our world today, including climate change, financial crises and globalization where the solutions are starting to be redefined in quite a different manner than before. He says: 
 
the old chestnuts of ‘high-tech will save us’ and ‘innovation will reign supreme’ are starting to look suspiciously worn out. Increasingly, the starting-point of the economy of the future looks like a perfect storm, one in which the most fundamental truths of business need to be questioned. 
 
His conclusion is that we are moving into an "Economy of Less", in which we consume more economically, seek sustainability, produce locally, etc. He proposes that we're moving into a third wave of industrialization, after the first wave (The Service Economy) and the second wave (The Information Economy). The Third Wave, he says:
 
will be defined by a move away from corporations prescribing the framework within which consumption occurs, a move where control over communication can no longer be upheld and where control over production moves much closer to end consumers. 
 
But how will this happen?
 
The real story is that technology and society are developing together in a way which makes old notions of control and lock-in effects outdated. Instead, we’re seeing how technologies that are now seen as marginal and/or hypothetical – things such as fabbing, 3D-printing, synthetic biology, ubiquitous computing and so on – are pointing to a future in which the quest for sustainability and advanced technology have together created a situation where the old industrial model of mass production for mass consumption has given way to something far more decentralized and thus less easy to control. 
 
And that's where it gets a little scary, as existing industries will get protective.  

 

Friday
01Jan2010

3D Printing Wishes for 2010

 

It's New Year's Day, 2010. We now have 366 days of progress in fabrication until 2011, and we're wondering what might happen this year. Here are our wishes for 2010:

 

  • A consumer capable 3D printer. Yes, there are very inexpensive 3D printers available today, but they are hardly something you'd drop off at your Mom's. The truth is that you must have several specific geek genes to use these devices. They certainly have opened up the market, but it isn't ready for consumers yet. The acid test has yet to be answered: "What would Mom do with this?"
  • Easy 3D Software. 3D modeling is pretty much a required skill to use 3D printing and similar technologies today. However, the problem is that it's beyond the skills of many people, or at least the learning curve is just too much for most people to withstand. While we've seen the beginnings of easier-to-use 3D software, but it just hasn't taken off yet. We're hoping for a breakthrough in 2010
  • Mainstream media coverage that isn't "Star Trek". Much of the mainstream media is still starry-eyed, and we're wondering how well this really serves the industry. We're hoping for less "Star Trek" and more demonstrations of practical uses


Good luck, everyone!

  Related Posts with Thumbnails

Friday
25Dec2009

Merry Christmas to 3D Printing!


We haven't believed in Santa for, well, a while now. But for the moment we wondered what gifts Santa might bring to the world of 3D printing….


Best of the season to everyone!

Tuesday
08Dec2009

3D Printers: Banned?



Gartner Analyst Nick Jones postulates banning consumer 3D printers in the future due to environmental concerns. He suspects we'll accumulate vast piles of non-biodegradable plastic bits, much like we accumulate paper today that comes from our 2D paper printers. Jones:

But as one of my clients pointed out yesterday, do we really want an affordable domestic fabber? Fabbers will likely “print” objects using some form of plastic. So the inevitable consequence of mass market fabbing will be a huge increase in the amount of non-biodegradable plastic waste clogging up the planet for hundreds of years into the future. Should we maybe ban fabbers before the problem arises? Like most problems there are solutions, like biodegradable plastic. But if we wait until all the problems with a technology are solved before we permit it, then we will waste a decade or two of potential value; and in any case there’s no way we can predict all the social and environmental issues associated with a new technology before it arrives.


We agree that there is no way to predict the future, but that's how innovation occurs: let people find the new paths through new technology. As for plastic, many 3D printers do print in various forms of plastic, but as Fabbaloo readers may recall, there are experiments or even commercially released processes using non-plastic materials, such as metal, glass or ceramics. Other 3D printing also involve biodegradable material such as paper, wax, rubber, sugar, pasta, nutella  or even living cells! A prime example of environmentally friendly (and inexpensive) 3D printing is MCOR's paper-based 3D printer.

While the big commercial 3D printing manufacturers focus on exotic print materials, smaller projects try pretty much anything in their devices. And they are the ones who will identify the environmentally friendly solutions.

Via Gartner