An article posted on ExtremeTech showed up recently and introduced 3D printing to the general public in the usual overly-optimistic way:
- a replicator and teleporter in every home
- You can plug it into your computer via USB, load up some freely-available 3D modeling software, and print stuff; it really is that simple. The only real barrier to mass adoption is the initial purchase price
- wireless versions that can sit on the kitchen worktop won’t be far behind
- it is becoming increasingly easy to simply download a 3D design, right click it, and press “create.”
- Imagine pressing the “bowl” or “cup” button on the 3D printer in the kitchen, followed by the “fork” or “spoon” button. It would even work for larger objects like cutting boards and colanders and laundry baskets
- With our current grasp of additive manufacturing, we could do these things now
Ok, that’s enough quotes. There are a lot more in there along the same line.
We believe in a 3D printing future, where yes, you can print things on demand. But that’s just not true today. Articles like this tend to make the general public overly optimistic about 3D printing. The truth is that we will slowly develop more capabilities and features over the course of years, and gradually the public will enter the space and begin to print simple things, followed by more complex things as hardware and software evolve.
All too often we speak to people who are truly enthusiastic about 3D printing, having seen or read similar reports in the mass media. But then we have to explain the actual state of affairs so they can understand where things really are at the moment. Here’s some statements you can use when when you encounter someone whose head is exploding after first hearing about personal 3D printing:
- Big time commercial 3D printers can produce some really amazing objects, but home/hobby 3D printers are far less capable at the moment
- Print resolutions are pretty rough, analogous to the dot-matrix 2D printers of the 1970’s. But they’re slowly improving
- Not every shape can be printed. There are limits to the size of objects and the geometry of some shapes can only be printed on certain types of printers
- Simple objects are generally quite printable – but objects with internal or moving parts can be difficult or in some cases impossible to print
- Just because someone did a successful experiment printing in titanium/pasta/concrete/avocados doesn’t mean you’ll be able to. Current “stock” personal 3D printers are quite limited in the materials they can print
- You can’t just press a button and get your object immediately; printing takes a long time. Often hours or even days in some cases, particularly for large or high-resolution objects
- Personally affordable 3D scanning of objects produces only rudimentary models/sculptures
- Designing 3D models for printing takes serious skill and sometimes expensive software
That should cool them off and keep heads from exploding. What did we miss?
We do think higher quality 3D printers will eventually emerge because there are tons of very smart, well-funded engineers working on ways to improve 3D printing today, but it will take a few years before we begin to approach the personal 3D printing vision that many seem to seek.
Via ExtremeTech
I agree that when mass media gets their hands on 3D Printing information it becomes way over-hyped. I have found a number of pieces information that I read at the beginning of my 3D Printing discovery that were portrayed as facts by reputable media outlets to be completely untrue once I did my own first hand research.
One thing I will say which is based more on my intuition than facts is that I believe significant changes in the technology will come faster than we think. Generally technology cycles become faster and faster. In other words, when we look at the forty years of evolution from the dot-matrix printers of the 1970s to the home (2D) Printers of today, I think 3D printing will make similar strides in a fraction of the time. Though I am careful not to over-hype like the media – perhaps in 5-10 years we will see the same type of progress we have seen in 40 years of 2D printing.
Another interesting aspect of such a comparison is that I believe the ultimate potential of 3D printing is much more vast than 2D. Replicating and transporting is way more advanced than what 2D printers could ever do – maybe to perform those functions with 3D printers would take 40 years…
I agree that when mass media gets their hands on 3D Printing information it becomes way over-hyped. I have found a number of pieces information that I read at the beginning of my 3D Printing discovery that were portrayed as facts by reputable media outlets to be completely untrue once I did my own first hand research.
One thing I will say which is based more on my intuition than facts is that I believe significant changes in the technology will come faster than we think. Generally technology cycles become faster and faster. In other words, when we look at the forty years of evolution from the dot-matrix printers of the 1970s to the home (2D) Printers of today, I think 3D printing will make similar strides in a fraction of the time. Though I am careful not to over-hype like the media – perhaps in 5-10 years we will see the same type of progress we have seen in 40 years of 2D printing.
Another interesting aspect of such a comparison is that I believe the ultimate potential of 3D printing is much more vast than 2D. Replicating and transporting is way more advanced than what 2D printers could ever do – maybe to perform those functions with 3D printers would take 40 years…
Great thoughts, Scott – and we agree. The challenge with the next generation of machines will be two-fold: cost, which should come down a lot before the mainstream can catch on, and models, which are problematic to make or obtain these days.
Great thoughts, Scott – and we agree. The challenge with the next generation of machines will be two-fold: cost, which should come down a lot before the mainstream can catch on, and models, which are problematic to make or obtain these days.
Many of those issues stem from the one-sided battle to augment the low end hobby printers. I've long believed mainstream adoption will only occur when the next category of commercial machines comes down in price & complexity to converge with the ever-improving low-end machines.
Problem? There's a huge chasm between the hobbyist machines (BFB300, UP!, Thing-o-Matic) and the nearest commercial machines (V-Flash, SD300, uPrint). Desktop Factory sought to bridge the chasm, but alas!
In terms of price and logistics, buying a commercial printer like V-Flash, SD300, Dimension uPrint is as challenging as buying a ski boat. But some people do buy ski boats don't they? I sure wish more hobbyists could cross the chasm, as I did by buying a Solido SD300. It's been quite a luxurious experience compared with the hobby-class machines.
I think the manufacturers also would like to close that gap. Solido, and my dealer SolidVision, both seem mystified by my unique issues as a hobbyist because they cater primarily to business users. But they've been intensely supportive and responsive, which suggests they'd like to attract more hobbyists like me. For instance I've been ordering material kits shipped by parcel-delivery, but they're really designed to ship via freight on pallets so I continually received damaged goods. A rep said they were engaged in redesiging the package and asked for pictures of exactly what broke. In the meantime my dealer compensated by individually reinforcing every single parcel they mailed to me. And sure enough, my last shipment has an elegant new package design that resolves the issue.
Don't be surprised if 3D Systems makes the next 'surprise' move toward crossing that chasm. They hold some remarkable cards in their hands: 1) they acquired some key assets and minds from Desktop Factory, so they should have insight into that demographic; 2) they contributed to the Solido SD300, by way of the Invision LD, so they understand its finer points; 3) they undoubtedly learned from some clever-but-unforeseen blunders while developing V-Flash; 4) their BitsFromBytes put them in direct contact with a huge, diverse pool of hobbyists who comprise RapMan and BFB3000 users. (Plus the BitsFromBytes forum, where these users congregate.)
Many of those issues stem from the one-sided battle to augment the low end hobby printers. I've long believed mainstream adoption will only occur when the next category of commercial machines comes down in price & complexity to converge with the ever-improving low-end machines.
Problem? There's a huge chasm between the hobbyist machines (BFB300, UP!, Thing-o-Matic) and the nearest commercial machines (V-Flash, SD300, uPrint). Desktop Factory sought to bridge the chasm, but alas!
In terms of price and logistics, buying a commercial printer like V-Flash, SD300, Dimension uPrint is as challenging as buying a ski boat. But some people do buy ski boats don't they? I sure wish more hobbyists could cross the chasm, as I did by buying a Solido SD300. It's been quite a luxurious experience compared with the hobby-class machines.
I think the manufacturers also would like to close that gap. Solido, and my dealer SolidVision, both seem mystified by my unique issues as a hobbyist because they cater primarily to business users. But they've been intensely supportive and responsive, which suggests they'd like to attract more hobbyists like me. For instance I've been ordering material kits shipped by parcel-delivery, but they're really designed to ship via freight on pallets so I continually received damaged goods. A rep said they were engaged in redesiging the package and asked for pictures of exactly what broke. In the meantime my dealer compensated by individually reinforcing every single parcel they mailed to me. And sure enough, my last shipment has an elegant new package design that resolves the issue.
Don't be surprised if 3D Systems makes the next 'surprise' move toward crossing that chasm. They hold some remarkable cards in their hands: 1) they acquired some key assets and minds from Desktop Factory, so they should have insight into that demographic; 2) they contributed to the Solido SD300, by way of the Invision LD, so they understand its finer points; 3) they undoubtedly learned from some clever-but-unforeseen blunders while developing V-Flash; 4) their BitsFromBytes put them in direct contact with a huge, diverse pool of hobbyists who comprise RapMan and BFB3000 users. (Plus the BitsFromBytes forum, where these users congregate.)